Klumme: Vores velkendte tilbudscyklus er i opbrud

Danskerne handlede for to milliarder kroner på Black Friday, og dermed var dagen den største shoppingdag nogensinde i Danmark, ifølge Dansk Erhverv.
Sidste år købte vi ind for 1,98 milliarder med Dankort, og Black Friday-forbruget har været støt stigende siden den spæde start i 2012.

I år rækker Black Friday dog langt ud over én enkelt fredag, så det bliver rigtig spændende at studere omsætningstallene for hele Black Friday-ugen.
I år foregik 12 procent af handlerne online, viser foreløbige status. Det tal ventes at stige i takt med, at butikkerne afsender de indkøbte varer og trækker pengene fra køber.

Har vi nået niveauet?

Nu er røgen lettet ude i butikkerne, og detailhandlen stiller sig spørgsmålet: Har vi nået niveauet?  Kan omsætningen stige endnu mere, eller flader den ud?  Ifølge Mediabrands Insights nyeste analyse er Black Friday-begrebet kendt af 4 ud 5. Det er højt. Men ”kun” 23 % svarede i år, at de ville handle Black Friday, mens 36 % sagde, de måske ville hoppe op i shoppingvognen, hvis et godt tilbud dukkede op.
Så der er plads til vækst.

Omvendt må vi erkende, at der kan opstå en modstrøm. Vi så antydninger af det i år. Det kan blive smart i visse kredse at melde sig ud af Black Friday og sprede sin modvilje i medierne og sociale medier.
Mit bud for ét år siden var faktisk, at vi ville nå forbrugsniveauet i 2016, som naturligvis måtte forventes at vippe op og ned med 5 procent år for år.

Nu er jeg i tvivl.

Kritikerne er velformulerede og højlydte, men de er en mindre kreds. Og de detailhandlende, der lige nu evaluerer på 2016 strategien, vil givetvis produktudvikle temaer og form med al den kreativitet og fagligt håndelag, de kan mobilisere, for at få mere ud af eventen og imødekomme modstrømninger.
Produktudvikling og udvidede tematisering er i fuld gang. Vi så i 2015, at Black Friday så småt blev til Black Weekend.  Det giver jo god mening at køre hele weekenden.

Vi har i år set, at tidlig annoncering og presse-hype – der ulmede allerede omkring 1. november – nu strækker shoppingfænomenet til en Black Week.  Jeg vil ikke blive forbavset, hvis vi ser, at Black Friday bliver et to ugers forløb i 2017 for mange af de detailhandlende.

Opbrud i vinterens indkøbscyklus

Foreløbig er Black Friday en kæmpe succes for forbrugerne og flertallet i detailhandlen.

Det afgørende for branchen er fremover, hvorvidt det opbrud i vaner, vi oplever, betyder, at hele vinterens indarbejdede indkøbscyklus for alvor forrykker sig.
Der er mange brikker på spillepladen. Her i landet har Black Friday ikke et fast holdepunkt. Det kan vrides, vendes og knopskydes i alle retninger.

Næsten 2/3 af danskerne sagde i vores analyse, at de gerne køber deres julegaver tidligt under Black Friday, såfremt de falder over et godt tilbud. Det er mange.

Der er andre faktorer i værktøjskassen. Jeg spår, at ”Singles Day” den 11. november, bliver en faktor i 2017. På Singles Day gives særlige tilbud til singler, og dem har vi én million af i Danmark. Så potentialet ligger lige for – og butikker vil næppe afvise de kunder, der er afsatte.

Hvis Black Friday ikke går i startboksen den 1. november, så tror jeg, at det bliver ”Singles Day”, der de kommende år kickstarter en meget lang tilbudsperiode.
Mit bud er, at de mange uger med tilbudskrig op mod jul kan udløse en ny logik. Jeg tror, vi skal belave os på et opbrud i udbud og efterspørgsel, som muligvis kan indskyde en ny event, lige før januarudsalget, der normalt skydes i gang den 25. december.

Hvis jeg var butiksejer, ville jeg studere alle kundebevægelser og pengestrømme og se på potentialet: Hvor mange (mænd) handler deres julegaver den 23-24. december?  Der kunne ligge et potentiale i, at butikker indfører et ”Last Minute Christmas Sale” – til eksempel den 23. december.

Af Michael Ingemann, Chief Digital Officer, bureaugruppen Mediabrands
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Mediabrands Danmark udgøres af mediabureauet IUM, specialbureauet iRetail, Marvelous, MediaPrint, Cadreon, Reprise Media, Orion Trading og researchenheden Insights.

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